Evolutionary probability calculator
Stochastic Biological Modelling
Bacteria/Year (B)
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Total Time (T)
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Mutation Rate (M)
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Mutations Req (N)
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Paths per exaptation event (P)
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HGT Rate
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Exaptation Events Required
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Calculate Probabilities
Total number of bacteria produced over the time available = (B) × (T)
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Probability of a cell gaining n specific mutations = (((M) + ((HGT) × (M)))^N)
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Probability per cell of at least one evolutionary path being crossed = 1-(1-Prob. N specific mutations)^P
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Expected number of bacteria to cross at least one path (E) = (Prob. per cell taking a path) × (Total bacteria)
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Probability of at least one bacterium crossing at least one path = 1 - e^(-E)
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Probability that all exaptation events would occur = (Prob. at least one success)^total exaptations
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